Is the Treasure Valley Still Growing
The Question Everyone’s Asking
“Is the Treasure Valley still growing, or are we done?”
I get this question from both buyers and sellers. Buyers want to know if they’re buying at the peak. Sellers wonder if they should have listed two years ago.
Here’s what the current data actually shows.
And more importantly, what it means for your real estate decisions right now.
What “Growth” Actually Means
When people talk about the Treasure Valley growing, they’re usually asking about three different things:
Is the population still increasing?
Are home prices still going up?
Is the market still favoring sellers?
The answers aren’t all the same. And that’s actually good news if you understand what’s happening.
The Numbers Right Now
According to January 2026 Altos Research data, here’s where we stand:
Ada County:
Current Inventory: 1,586 homes available
Median Days on Market: 70 days
Market Action Index: 36 (slight seller’s advantage)
Median List Price: $599,900
Canyon County (includes Nampa, Caldwell):
Current Inventory: 920 homes available
Median Days on Market: 70 days
Market Action Index: 35 (slight seller’s advantage)
Median List Price: $474,900
Let me translate what these numbers mean.
We’re Not in 2021 Anymore
Remember 2021? Homes selling in 48 hours. Twenty offers on every listing. Buyers waiving every contingency and offering $50,000 over asking.
That was unsustainable. And honestly, it was unhealthy for everyone involved.
What we’re seeing now is something different. Something better, actually.
Think of the 2020-2021 market like a wildfire. Fast, hot, destructive, unsustainable.
The current market is more like a well-tended campfire. Still warm. Still growing. But controlled and sustainable.
Population Growth: Still Happening
The Treasure Valley is absolutely still growing in population.
People are still moving here from California, Washington, Oregon, and other states. Remote workers are still discovering they can live in Idaho and keep their out-of-state salaries. Boise State continues expanding. Micron’s huge expansion is bringing thousands of jobs.
But here’s the change.
The rate of growth has moderated. Instead of explosive 5-6% annual population growth, we’re seeing healthier 2-3% growth.
That’s still growth. Just sustainable growth.
Price Appreciation: Slowing, Not Stopping
Home prices are still appreciating across the Treasure Valley. But the rate has slowed dramatically from the 20-30% annual gains we saw in 2020-2021.
Now we’re seeing more normal appreciation. Think 3-5% annually in most areas.
This is actually healthy.
Rapid appreciation prices out local workers. It creates affordability crises. It sets up for corrections.
Steady, moderate appreciation? That’s sustainable. That’s what long-term homeowners want.
Market Dynamics: More Balanced
Here’s where it gets interesting.
Those Market Action Index numbers (36 for Ada County, 35 for Canyon County) tell you something important.
We’re in a balanced market with a slight edge to sellers.
Not a strong seller’s market. Not a buyer’s market. Balanced.
What does that look like in practice?
Homes are taking 70 days to sell on average. Not 3 days. Not 6 months. 70 days.
Buyers have time to be selective. Sellers need to price competitively. Both sides negotiate.
With 1,586 homes available in Ada County, buyers have choices. But good homes still get multiple offers when priced right.
The Inventory Story
Let me explain why inventory levels matter.
In 2020-2021, we had maybe 500-600 homes available across Ada County at any given time. Buyers were fighting over scraps.
Now we have 1,586 homes available. That’s not a flood of inventory. That’s a healthy supply.
Think of it like grocery shopping.
Too little inventory (2021) is like empty shelves during a shortage. You grab whatever you can find.
Too much inventory (2008-2010) is like a going-out-of-business sale. Desperation everywhere.
Current inventory is like a well-stocked store. Good selection, fair prices, time to choose wisely.
What This Means for Different Groups
If you’re buying:
You have time. You can be selective. You can negotiate. You don’t need to waive your inspection or offer $30,000 over asking.
But good homes in good neighborhoods still move quickly. Don’t overthink it and miss opportunities.
If you’re selling:
You’ll still sell. But pricing matters more than it did in 2021. Condition matters. Marketing matters.
Overpriced homes sit. Properly priced homes sell within that 70-day median window.
If you’re holding as an investment:
Your property is likely still appreciating. Just at a healthier, more sustainable pace.
Long-term appreciation in the Treasure Valley remains strong. The boom-bust cycle has smoothed out into steady growth.
The Factors Supporting Continued Growth
Job growth: Micron’s $15+ billion expansion. Tech companies choosing Boise. Healthcare expansion. These create sustained demand.
Quality of life: Mountain access, four seasons, lower cost than coastal cities, outdoor lifestyle. These don’t change with market cycles.
Limited supply: We’re not building enough new homes to keep pace with demand. Geographic constraints (foothills to the north, desert to the south) limit expansion.
Affordability: Even with recent price increases, the Treasure Valley remains more affordable than Seattle, Portland, San Francisco, Denver, and other western markets.
The Honest Truth
Is the Treasure Valley still growing? Yes.
Are we seeing the same explosive growth as 2020-2021? No.
Is that a bad thing? Absolutely not.
What we’re experiencing now is sustainable growth. The kind of growth that creates long-term value rather than short-term speculation.
Home prices are still appreciating. Just at normal, healthy rates.
Population is still increasing. Just at manageable levels that allow infrastructure to keep up.
The market still slightly favors sellers. But buyers have negotiating power too.
What You Should Do
Don’t wait for a crash. The fundamentals supporting the Treasure Valley real estate market are strong. Limited supply, continued demand, job growth, quality of life.
Don’t panic about missing the peak. We’re not at a peak. We’re in a normalized market after an abnormal period.
Make decisions based on your situation. If you need to buy a home, buy it. If you need to sell, sell it. Trying to time the market perfectly usually backfires.
Focus on long-term value. Real estate in the Treasure Valley has been a solid long-term investment for decades. That’s unlikely to change.
The Treasure Valley growth story isn’t over. It’s just maturing into something more sustainable and healthy for everyone involved.
