Selling Over the Holidays in the Treasure Valley: 7 Myths vs What the MLS Data Shows

Buyers don't disappear when the weather turns. In October, 1,157 single-family homes closed in Ada and Canyon counties. As of November 12, another 676 were pending or under contract with contingencies, which means those buyers are working toward closing right through Thanksgiving and into December.

Most of October's closings went under contract in September or October (73.2%). These are buyers who were out writing offers in the fall, not back in the spring. And about one in five October sales (20.8%) closed with cash.

The people shopping this time of year usually have a reason to. A job start, a lease ending, a move they've already planned. That tends to make for focused buyers, not just browsers.

This one keeps a lot of homeowners on the sidelines. The data doesn't back it up. October's median sold-to-original-list price was 98.9%. In plain terms, the typical home sold for about a penny on the dollar less than its first list price.

Here's the part I'd pay attention to, though. A little more than half of October sales (56.5%) closed below their original list price, and 43.5% closed at or above it. So buyers are negotiating. They just aren't getting homes for a steal.

DOM means days on market, the number of days from listing to accepted offer. October's median DOM was 19 days, and the average was 38.4. That gap matters. The average gets pulled up by a smaller group of homes that sat a long time, while the typical home moved much faster.

Of October's closings, 45% had 14 days or fewer on market, and 60.8% had 30 or fewer. The homes that sit are usually the ones that came out of the gate with a price buyers didn't agree with. More on that next.

I understand the thinking: start high, see what happens, and adjust. The October numbers show what that usually costs. About 36% of homes that sold had a price reduction before going under contract.

Those homes had a median of 64 days on market and sold for a median of 95.6% of their original list price. The homes that never needed a reduction had a median of 6 days on market and sold at a median of 100% of original list.

That's the difference between selling in about a week and selling in about two months, and the longer wait usually came with a lower result too. Starting high doesn't usually buy you a higher price. It mostly buys you time on the market.

It can feel that way scrolling online, but the count says otherwise. On November 12, there were 1,131 single-family homes active in Ada and Canyon counties, at a median list price of about $555,000.

October had 1,157 closings. Put those side by side, and that's roughly one month of supply. It's a rough snapshot, one day's listings against one month's sales, but it gives you a sense of scale.

The more telling number might be this one: 42.3% of today's active listings have already had a price cut from their original list price. To me, that doesn't say the valley is flooded with homes. It says a lot of sellers started above where buyers landed.

The Treasure Valley isn't one market. In October, Ada County's median sold price was about $570,000 with an average of 35.3 days on market. Canyon County's was about $450,000, averaging 44 days.

City by city, the spread gets wider. Boise's median DOM was 12 days. Meridian's was 23, Caldwell's 22, and Middleton's 32. That's among cities with at least 20 October closings, so the numbers aren't swung by a handful of sales.

So when a neighbor says "homes are selling fast" or "homes are sitting," it really depends on where, what price range and what kind of home.

I'm not going to tell you spring isn't real. More homes usually hit the market then, and more buyers usually come out with them. What I can't tell you, from this data, is that waiting will get you a better number. October and this week's snapshot don't answer that, and I'd rather not guess.

What I can tell you is what the fall actually looked like. Buyers were active, the typical home sold close to its original price and the well-priced homes moved quickly. If spring works better for your life, that's a perfectly good reason to wait. I'd just make it a decision based on your plans and your number, not on a myth about the holidays.